Thursday, November 12, 2009

INSANE UFC 105 PREVIEW: Betting Odds, Chances of Fighters Winning, Statistical Analysis and Predictions for Every Fight

Insanely-thorough preview of UFC 105: COUTURE VS. VERA. Includes breakdowns of betting odds with analysis, win-loss records, UFC wins and losses, biggest wins, fighter profiles and backgrounds, logical outcomes, Madness Levels and Madman Predictions for each and every fight on the card. UFC 105 will be held Saturday November 14 at the Manchester Evening News Arena in Manchester, England. The main card will air on Spike TV in North America.

Betting lines are for entertainment purposes only to illustrate oddsmakers' projections. Madness Levels indicate the insanity inspired in anticipation of a fight on a scale of one to ten. Madman Logic is determined by a mathematical formula based on previous results. Striving to be the most analytically astute fight preview column possible. Let the madness begin...



Lightweight Bout

ANDRE WINNER (-500) = 78% chance of winning

ROLANDO DELGADO (+325) = 22% chance of winning

Andre Winner is 9-3, with 5 wins by decision, 3 wins by submission and 1 win by TKO. Winner has lost twice by decision and once by submission. Winner is 0-1 in the UFC, losing in the TUF 9 finals. Winner is 0-2-1 in his last 3 fights.

UFC L: Ross Pearson (UD)

BIGGEST WINNER WIN: over Mario ‘Serious’ Stapel by Unanimous Decision at FX3 (11/07)

Rolando ‘the Crazy Cuban’ Delgado is 6-4, with 4 wins by submission and 1 win by TKO due to injury. Delgado has lost 3 times by decision and lost once by TKO (to Jorge Masvidal). Delgado, a participant on TUF 8, is 1-1 in the UFC.

UFC W: John Polakowski (SUB)

UFC L: Paul Kelly (UD)

BIGGEST DELGADO WIN: over John Polakowski by Submission at UFC TUF 8 Finale (12/08)

LOWDOWN: Andre Winner, 28, is a life-long athlete who was encouraged into MMA by Dan Hardy, whom he had met at self-defense classes at Leicester Shootfighters. Roli Delgado, 27, has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. With their UFC records, both these guys are in a position where a loss will likely mean a pink slip.

MADNESS LEVEL (1-10): 5 - Moderately exciting fight. With only a single non-injury TKO victory between the two of them, neither of these fighters are known for being hard hitting. This likely will be more of a grappling match that will go to a decision. Both guys will be fighting for their UFC careers, so hopefully that will force the action.

LOGIC SAYS: Stalemate, Going to Decision

PREDICTION: Andre Winner

Light Heavyweight Bout

JARED HAMMAN (-160) = 59% chance of winning

ALEXANDER GUSTAFSSON (+130) = 41% chance of winning

Jared Hamman is 10-1, with 8 wins by (T)KO and 2 wins by submission. Hamman’s only loss was by flying knee KO to Poai Suganama fifteen seconds into their first EliteXC fight. Hamman will be making his UFC debut.

BIGGEST HAMMAN WIN: over Poai Suganama by TKO in rematch in EliteXC (8/08)

Alexander ‘the Mauler’ Gustafsson is 8-0, undefeated with 6 wins by (T)KO and 1 win by submission. Gustafsson will be making his UFC debut.

BIGGEST GUSTAFSSON WIN: over Krzysztof ‘Model’ Kulak by Unanimous Decision at KSW: Extra (9/08)

LOWDOWN: Jared Hamman, 27, played college football as a defensive end at the University of Redlands. He trains on the VMAT team with Vladimir Matyushenko. Alexander Gustafsson, 22, is a Swedish fighter with a boxing and freestyle wrestling background. Both fighters will be making their UFC debuts.

MADNESS LEVEL (1-10): 7 - This one, featuring two heavy-handed brawlers who aren't used to losing, could easily take Fight of the Night. Hamman has real potential to be a star in MMA with his likeable demeanor. Alexander Gustafsson has the right kind of style to bring out the best in Hamman, the question is whether Hamman's best is enough to stop the Mauler. This is a great fight that I hope somehow makes the telecast.

LOGIC SAYS: Gustafsson by KO –OR– Hamman by KO (Slugfest!)

PREDICTION: Jared Hamman

Complete List of UFC Ultimate 100 Greatest Fights - The Best Fights In UFC History

In the build-up to UFC 100 over the summer, Spike TV aired a 5-episode series called UFC: The Ultimate 100 Greatest Fights, where they counted down the 100 greatest fights as voted by UFC fans.

Fans voting on a list like this is sure to create a lot of controversy and debate. One thing that is for certain, though, is that these were all exciting fights, regardless of numerical order.

Unlike the television special, which aired only clips of the fights, all 100 complete fights are included in the DVD collection.


Here's the complete list, starting with number 100 and working all the way down to the fan-voted best fight in UFC history:

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

VIDEO: Weekend Warriors - MMA Results from Independent Fight Scene 11/6 - 11/8

A rundown of results from the minor leagues of MMA for the weekend of November 6 to November 8, 2009. There weren't a whole lot of big names in action this past weekend, but action spanned the globe from former UFC fighter Jeff 'the Joker' Liaudin fighting in China, to an X-1 show in Hawaii, to Rumble in the Cage and Heat XC shows in Canada, to Rage in the Cage and No Love Enterainment in the U.S. South.

Here is the Main Event of Rumble in the Cage 37 from Canada featuring Lee 'Gladiator' Mein (3-7) winning the Heavyweight Championship in spectacular fashion over Devan Garnon. Garnon wrote on his Facebook page that his jaw was broken in three places, and he will be getting surgery to put two plates in his jaw that will require it being wired shut for 8 weeks. Ouch!

RUMBLE IN THE CAGE 37 -- 11/7/09 

Location: Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada

MAIN - Lee Mein won by KO over Devan Garnon. {Heavyweight Title}

2 - Brad Cardinal won by TKO over Trevor Wright. {Lightweight Title}

3 - Devon Neis won by KO over Mike Shidelar.

4 - Jose Rodriguez won by TKO over Matt Bagshaw.

5 - Jeremy Smerek won by KO over Clint Bortin.

6 - Peter Neufeld won by SUB over Kody Dzurka.

7 - Jason Beavis won by MD over Josh Kitchen.

8 - Jose Lagos won by TKO over Michael Peterson.

9 - Ben Snyder won by TKO over Travis Brunner.

10 - Dwayne Mombourquette won by SUB over Adam Rabidoux.

11 - Greg Parton won by SD over Brent Harvie.

HEAT XC 4: HYSTERIA -- 11/6/09

Location: Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

MAIN - Roger 'the Hulk' Hollett (10-3) won by SUB over Aron Lofton (7-3) in R1. [3:02]

2 - Kajan 'Ragin' Johnson (16-10) won by TKO over John Russell (3-1) after R2. [10:00]

3 - Josh Bryant (10-0) won by KO over Danny Valimaki (3-1) in R2. [7:19]

4 - Ryan Fortin (3-1) won by TKO over Jared 'J-Rod' Kilkenny (8-8) in R1. [1:38]

5 - Andrew Buckland (10-5) won by SUB over Allan Hope (5-6) in R1. [3:22]

6 - Jeff Montemurro (2-0) won by TKO over Chad Sherman (3-2) in R1. [1:29]

7 - Jason Kuchera (5-4) won by TKO over Taylor Bull (1-2) in R2. [9:15]

QUICKEST WIN: Jeff Montemurro in 89 seconds.

RAGE IN THE CAGE 136 -- 11/7/09 (3-minute rounds)

Location: Yavapai County Fairgrounds in Prescott Valley, Arizona

MAIN - Estevan Payan (8-3) won by UD over Omur Cor (5-4). [9:00]

2 - Eric Regan (13-15) won by SUB over David Barnes (3-4) in R2. [3:51]

3 - Danny Hilton (2-0) won by SUB over James Fabbri (1-1) in R3. [7:30]

4 - Lucas Stark (2-4) won by SD over Graham Hookano (1-1). [9:00]

5 - Mike Moritz (3-1) won by SUB over Josian Smith (2-3) in R3. [8:23]

6 - Francisco Navarro (2-1) won by UD over Greg Nagy (1-1). [9:00]

7 - Richard Frye (1-1) won by SUB over Peter Hust (0-2) in R1. [0:32]

8 - Ruben S. Gonzalez (1-1) won by TKO over Adan Ekstedt (0-1) after R2. [6:00]

9 - John Moraga (1-0) won by UD over Sam Shapiro (0-1). [9:00]

QUICKEST WIN: Richard Frye in 32 seconds


Location: Hard Rock Casino in Biloxi, Mississippi

MAIN - Keith Johnson (3-0) won by SUB over Charlie Rader (9-2) in R1. [2:36]

2 - Colin 'the Gift' McKee (6-2) won by TKO over Randy Billiot (1-1) in R1. [3:26]

3 - Sam Ortiz (3-2) won by SUB over Robert Thompson (7-8) in R1. [2:15]

4 - Joshua Thorpe (7-1) won by UD over JC Pennington (19-9). [15:00]

5 - James Nevels (2-0) won by KO over Jarad Markel (1-1) in R2. [9:02]

6 - Jason Knight (3-0) won by SUB over Shawn Hayes (2-2) in R1. [1:50]

QUICKEST WIN: Jason Knight in 110 seconds.


Location: City of Dreams Grand Hyatt Ballroom in Macau, China

MAIN - Jess 'the Joker' Liaudin (15-11) won by SUB over Bernueng Sakhomsin (0-2) in R1.

2 - Antony 'Wild Thing' Rea (17-13) won by TKO over Wade Henderson (2-2) in R2.

3 - Rodrigo Caporal (3-2) won by SD over Alexandre 'Xandinho' Izidro (6-10) after R2.

4 - Ngoo Ditty (2-0) won by SUB over Chaimangkhon Simma (0-1) in R1.

X-1: SCUFFLE ON THE SCHOFIELD 2 -- 11/7/09 (3-minute rounds)

Location: Schofield Barracks in Honolulu, Hawaii

MAIN - Kurrent Cockett (4-0) won by SUB over Matt Comeau (2-2) in R1.

2 - Keola Silva won by UD over Ian Dela Cuesta.

3 - Collin Mansanas won by TKO over Ikaika Reinhardt in R2.

4 - Michael Wikelspecht won by UD over Walter Hao.

5 - Jenny Trujillo won by UD over Angie Pereira.

6 - Dejuan Hathaway won by TKO over L. John Borges in R1.

7 - Kris Kyle won by UD over Ikaika Sasaoka.

8 - Brent Schermerhorn won by TKO over Danny Mabulat in R1.

9 - Edward Faaloloto won by UD over Taylor Cochoran.

10 - Pisa Tivao won by SUB over Joseph Counterman in R2.

11 - Raquel Pa'aluhi won by SUB over Monica Franco in R1.

12 - Travis Beyer won by SUB over Mateo Gurney in R1.

13 - Van Shiroma won by TKO over Steve Albanese in R1.

Updated MMA win-loss records with total fight time in brackets.

UD = Unanimous | SD = Split | MD = Majority Decision | SUB = Submission | R = Round

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin II Fight Card Officially Complete with 11 Bouts

The UFC has officially confirmed all 11 bouts scheduled for UFC 106: ORTIZ VS. GRIFFIN 2 on November 21, 2009 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas. UFC 106 will air on PPV one week after UFC 105 airs on Spike TV from the United Kingdom.

The show will be headlined by a rematch between Forrest Griffin and Tito 'Huntington Beach Bad Boy' Ortiz. Ortiz got the split decision victory in their first encounter at UFC 59 in 2006, in what was Griffin's first UFC fight against a top level light heavyweight. Two years later, Griffin would go on to the win the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship from Quinton 'Rampage' Jackson, only to lose it to Rashad Evans in his first defense in December 2008. Griffin came back in 2009 to get embarrassed against UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva in a light heavyweight bout. Silva appeared untouchable in his fight with Griffin and easily handled the former light heavyweight champ.

After beating Forrest Griffin, Tito Ortiz spent less than four minutes getting two wins in a row over UFC Hall of Famer Ken Shamrock, in what would be Shamrock's last UFC fights. The last Shamrock fight, and Ortiz's last MMA win, was over 3 years ago. Ortiz has fought 3 times since in the UFC, going 0-2-1 with losses to Chuck Liddell and Lyoto Machida, and a draw with Rashad Evans. In the meantime, Ortiz also competed in a different arena, on the first season of newly revamped THE CELEBRITY APPRENTICE. Ortiz finished seventh out of 14 celebrity contestants, but did manage to raise $70,000 for the St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in the process, which was the fourth highest amount raised for their charity by anyone on the show.

It's not too often a UFC PPV is going to be headlined by two fighters who have each lost in their last couple of fights, but due to several fighters pulling out of UFC 106, Forrest Griffin and Tito Ortiz remained the last two standing with the most drawing power to headline the PPV. Most fans won't be looking at the records of these fighters, but rather the starpower of their names. Originally UFC 106 was to be headlined by Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin in a UFC Heavyweight Championship bout, with Ortiz fighting UFC Hall of Famer Mark 'the Hammer' Coleman in the co-main event. First Coleman pulled out due to injury and Forrest Griffin was named as replacement, then Lesnar had to pull out due to a bout with mononucleosis, so Ortiz/Griffin was moved up to main event status and a new co-main event was added.

The co-main event will feature an explosive welterweight fight between Josh Koscheck and Anthony 'Rumble' Johnson. In other action, Phil 'the New York Badass' Baroni will be returning to the UFC for the first time in nearly 5 years. He'll be matched up against TUF 7 winner Amir Sadollah.

UFC 106 will also feature the UFC debut of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira's twin brother Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. As if their similar names aren't confusing enough, Rodrigo is nicknamed Minotauro and Rogerio is nicknamed Minotouro. That makes Antonio Rodrigo 'Minotauro' Nogueira and Antonio Rogerio 'Minotouro' Nogueira. This is sure to create some interesting confusion among UFC fans. Although the Nogueira brothers are twins, Rodrigo fights at heavyweight and Rogerio fights at light heavyweight. This has lead to the much-less-confusing alternate nicknames of Big Nog for Rodrigo and Little Nog for Rogerio. Little Nog will be fighting Luiz Cane, a fellow Brazilian, at UFC 106.

Complete Fight Card After the Break

Sunday, November 8, 2009

STRIKEFORCE: FEDOR VS ROGERS RESULTS - The Return of the King - Recap and Madman Awards for 11/7/09 in Chicago

STRIKEFORCE: FEDOR VS. ROGERS was held Saturday November 7, 2009 at the Sears Center in Chicago, IL. The main event featured the first fight inside a cage for the god of MMA, Fedor 'the Last Emperor' Emelianenko, who made his mark on the world fighting in rings in Japan. His opponent, Brett 'the Grim' Rogers, was working at a Sam's Club less than a year ago. Now, he's headlined an MMA card on CBS television. Emelianenko continued his dominance in the world of MMA, knocking out Rogers in the second round. In the big picture, while Rogers may have lost the battle, his life has been significantly changed financially, so he is a clear victor in his own personal war with life. He's officially gone from the outhouse to the penthouse. Rogers put in a good showing against Fedor, leaving him bloody and bruised after their main event bout. The name Brett Rogers has become, and will continue to be, a big name in MMA.

Jake Shields and Jason 'Mayhem' Miller had a 25-minute technical battle, spent mostly wrestling on the ground. A plethora of innovative grappling maneuvers and escapes were displayed in a bout that required an appreciation of the nuances of the incredible skill level being presented by these two veteran fighters. By the end of the fight, there were significant boos coming from the crowd for Jake Shields, but he's the Strikeforce Middleweight Champion now and we're not. Kudos to both fighters for a very entertaining fight.

Gegard 'the Dreamcatcher' Mousasi calmly put away Rameau Thierry 'the African Assassin' Sokoudjou in the second round. Sokoudjou used his judo to dominate Mousasi in takedowns, but was never able to really get anything going against Mousasi, and ended up appearing emotionally beat before the Dreamcatcher was finally able to land enough strikes to get the contest called.

In the opening televised bout, Fabricio Werdum was mauled by Antonio 'Bigfoot' Silva in the first round, but survived his initial encounter with the sasquatchian fighter. Werdum came back to win the second and third stanzas and was awarded a unanimous decision victory.

In untelevised action, Marloes Coenen made quick work of Roxanne Modafferi, securing an armbar just over a minute into the first round of their fight. Modafferi took the fight on short notice and stepped up a weight class. Coenen weighed in 5 pounds heavier than Modafferi and her size advantage proved to be too much for Roxy. With the victory, Coenen becomes the number one contender for Cristiane Cyborg's Strikeforce Women's Lightweight Championship. We should be seeing Cyborg vs Coenen sometime in the first quarter of 2010.

A knee to the ribs of Dustin Neace caused him to submit to Jeff 'the Big Frog' Curran, who was making his Strikeforce debut after losing 4-straight fights in the WEC. In other action, UFC TUF 6 participant John Kolosci lost a unanimous decision to Shamar Bailey. Nate Moore and Christian Uflacker also picked up preliminary card wins. TUF 9 participant and Chicago native Mark 'the Meat Missile' Miller was supposed to face Deray Davis, but their fight was cancelled due to time constraints, as Miller described on a Facebook update. Sounds more like time mismanagement.

All-in-all, an awesome night of fights on CBS, and an amazing weekend full of MMA with Strikeforce Challengers 4 yesterday, and Sengoku 11 live from Japan overnight. The 3 shows made for a total of around 9 hours worth of MMA in a 24-hour period. The MMAmadman never tires of fights, though, bring on another 9 hours!

Complete Results and Awards After the Break