Betting lines are for entertainment purposes only and are included here to illustrate oddsmakers' projections. Madness Levels indicate the amount of insanity inspired in anticipation of a fight on a scale of one to ten. Madman Logic is determined by my trusty sidekick, the Madman Computer, which uses a mathematical formula based on previous results to determine what the most logical outcome would be if either fighter were to win.
Striving to be the most analytically astute fight preview column possible. Let the madness begin...
UD = Unanimous | SD = Split | MD = Majority Decision | SUB = Submission | (T)KO = (Technical)Knockout
WEC 45: CERRONE VS. RATCLIFF
JAMEEL MASSOUH (-175) = 61% chance of winning
ERIK KOCH (+145) = 39% chance of winning
WEC L: Leonard Garcia (SD), Raphael Assuncao (UD)
BIGGEST MASSOUH WIN: over Ryan Healy by Unanimous Decision at EVO MMA (10/08)
BIGGEST KOCH WIN: over Joe Pearson by Triangle Choke Submission at Mainstream MMA: New Era (4/08)
LOWDOWN: Jameel Massouh, 25, has an amateur wrestling and karate background. He trains at Dave Strasser’s Freestyle Academy in Kenosha, Wisconsin. Erik Koch, 21, has a Taekwondo background and fights out of Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
MADNESS LEVEL (1-10): 4 – Jameel Massouh is coming off back-to-back losses to Leonard Garcia and Raphael Assuncao, which is the first time in his career he’s been defeated twice in a row. Erik Koch is a young buck who made his MMA debut less than 2 years ago. This is a make-or-break fight for Massouh, 3 losses and he’s not going to be fighting in the WEC again anytime soon. This will be Koch’s first fight on the big stage. I’m going with the more experienced fighter, who desperately needs the win, to come out on top in this one.
LOGIC SAYS: Massouh by SUB –OR– Koch by SUB
BRAD PICKETT (-205) = 64% chance of winning
KYLE DIETZ (+165) = 36% chance of winning
BIGGEST PICKETT WIN: over Robbie “The Flame” Olivier by Majority Decision at Cage Rage 16 (4/06)
WEC L: Rafael Rebello (SUB)
BIGGEST DIETZ WIN: none over an opponent of any significance
LOWDOWN: Brad Pickett, 31, has a boxing and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background. Pickett is a British fighter who is know for his ring entrance to the song WALLOP by Chas ‘n’ Dave. Pickett’s ring entrance attire and his nickname are based on the Brad Pitt character in SNATCH named “One Punch Mickey.” Kyle Dietz, 23, has an amateur wrestling and Muay Thai background. In high school, Dietz was a multi-sport athlete, and he was a professional bike rider as a teenager. Dietz trains with Team Evolution alongside the likes of Spencer Fisher and Drew McFedries.
MADNESS LEVEL (1-10): 5 – Brad Pickett is an exciting fighter who is currently on a 7-fight winning streak. Pickett fought extensively for Cage Rage in the United Kingdom, where he’s had some notorious battles over the years. This will be Pickett’s fourth fight in the United States. He’s 2-1 on U.S. soil. Dietz is still a somewhat obscure young fighter. Pickett would be a huge feather in Dietz’s cap, should he be able to overcome the veteran Brit.
LOGIC SAYS: Pickett by SUB –OR– Dietz by SUB