Saturday, September 25, 2010

UFC 119 MADMAN ROUNDTABLE: Group Predictions, Analysis, Madness Levels for Every Fight on 9/25/10 Indianapolis Card



Welcome to the Madman Roundtable for tonight's UFC 119: MIR VS CRO COP. The main card will air live on PPV starting at 10:00 pm EST. At least 2 live fights will air on Spike TV starting at 9:00 pm EST.

This roundtable features Randy Rowles (UFC 119 INSANE PREVIEW), Joshua King, Johnny Nguyen and Eric Van Den Haas, whose picks can also be consumed in their entirety in the delectable EVIL ERIC vs UFC 119, an MMAmadman special feature.

Madness Levels are in parenthesis. They indicate the level of excitement for a fight based on a scale of 1 to 10. The numbers in brackets beside the fighters' names indicate how many roundtable members picked the respective fighters to win.

Joshua King is our returning champion.
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UFC 119: MIR VS CRO COP

MIRKO CRO COP [1] vs. FRANK MIR [3]

Average Madness Level (1-10): 8.25

RANDY ROWLES – (10) It's still 2005 in my mind, Evil Eric! Frank Mir by Submission in Round 2

JOSHUA KING – (8) Heart says Mirko. Head says Frank Mir by Submission 1st Round

JOHNNY NGUYEN – (8) This one is hard for me to pick cause I have much love for Cro Cop, and Frank Mir has some of the best jits for a heavyweight. I’m gonna go out on a limb here and pick Cro Cop by TKO HEADKICK. WAR CRO COP!

ERIC VAN DEN HAAS – (7) This would be a 10 on the Madness scale if this was 2005. Now... well, it's a relatively poor main event compared to what the UFC has been treating us to recently. I would love to see Crop Cop kick the shit outta Frank "Papps" Mir but I'm betting that Mirko gets taken down and submitted. Man, I'd love to be wrong on this one! Frank Mir by Submission in Round 1
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RYAN BADER [4] vs. ANTONIO ROGERIO NOGUEIRA [0]

Average Madness Level (1-10): 7.75

ROWLES – (9) Ryan Bader should pronounce himself as one of the Top 10 light heavyweights in the world with a victory over the legendary Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Rogerio is the twin brother of UFC heavyweight Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, who was originally scheduled for the main event in a rematch with Frank Mir, before he had to withdraw due to injury. Rodrigo coached Ryan Bader to victory on TUF 8, and now Bader fights his twin brother. Ryan Bader by TKO in Round 2

KING – (7) If their last couple fights are an indicator, I'm pretty sure Nog is getting tooled. Ryan Bader by TKO, 2nd

NGUYEN – (7) Bader is climbing up the ranks fast and he has to face Lil Nog to get closer to his title shot. Ryan Bader by 1st rd KO

VAN DEN HAAS – (8) I tend to take the young, hungry up and comer over the overrated veteran. Bader will lose at some point but not against Minotoro. Bloody hell, Jason Brilz outwrestled Nogueira and nearly beat him! Ryan Bader by Unanimous Decision
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Friday, September 24, 2010

EVIL ERIC vs UFC 119: Predictions with Analysis and Madness Levels for Every Fight at Mir vs Cro Cop - 9/25/10 in Indianapolis


UFC 119: MIR VS CRO COP

by Eric Van Den Haas, Prediction Specialist...and Evil

Madness Levels indicate the amount of insanity inspired in anticipation of a fight on a scale of 1 to 10, a numerical translation of excitement for each fight.

Evil Eric speak 'em...

MAIN PPV CARD

Heavyweight Bout

MIRKO CRO COP vs FRANK MIR

Madness Level (1-10): 7

This would be a 10 on the Madness scale if this was 2005. Now... well, it's a relatively poor main event compared to what the UFC has been treating us to recently. I would love to see Crop Cop kick the shit outta Frank "Papps" Mir but I'm betting that Mirko gets taken down and submitted. Man, I'd love to be wrong on this one!

PREDICTION: Frank Mir by Submission in Round 1
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Light Heavyweight Bout

RYAN BADER vs ANTONIO ROGERIO NOGUEIRA

Madness Level (1-10): 8

I tend to take the young, hungry up and comer over the overrated veteran. Bader will lose at some point but not against Minotoro. Bloody hell, Jason Brilz outwrestled Nogueira and nearly beat him!

PREDICTION: Ryan Bader by Unanimous Decision
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Welterweight Bout

CHRIS LYTLE vs MATT SERRA

Madness Level (1-10): 9

Hard to believe that a bout featuring a couple of 36 year olds is generating the most Madness for yours truly but it is an intriguing battle. Lytle's all-out style has garnered him several Fight/Sub/KO of the Night bonus checks (and it's quite possible once again) but he'll be on the wrong end of the majority of abuse dished out.

PREDICTION: Matt Serra by Unanimous Decision
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Lightweight Bout

EVAN DUNHAM vs SEAN SHERK

Madness Level (1-10): 7

Another undefeated, rising star against an aging vet well past his prime (who hasn't fought in 16 months due to a variety of injuries). There is no way Dunham loses this fight - just a matter of how he prevails.

PREDICTION: Evan Dunham by Submission in Round 3
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Lightweight Bout

MELVIN GUILLARD vs JEREMY STEPHENS

Madness Level (1-10): 8

This will be quite the battle and it could go either way but I'll take Lil' Heathen in a slight upset as his game is a lil' more well-rounded.

PREDICTION: Jeremy Stephens by TKO in Round 2
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UFC PRELIMS LIVE ON SPIKE TV

Middleweight Bout

JOE DOERKSEN vs CB DOLLAWAY

Madness Level (1-10): 6

Joe Dirt was a huge underdog against Tom Lawlor (who defeated Dollaway) and prevailed via submission... and The Doberman's had trouble with submission defense in the past. Sadly I don't have the stones to back the biggest dog on the card though this ain't the walk in the park the oddsmakers might have you believe.

PREDICTION: C.B. Dollaway by Unanimous Decision
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Heavyweight Bout

JOEY BELTRAN vs MATT MITRIONE

Madness Level (1-10): 7

I'm quite surprised Meathead is the favorite here. He beat Marcus Jones and Kimbo - so what? The Mexicutioner has pretty much KO'd everyone he's faced that's not named Tony Lopez. Add Mitrione to the casualties list (much to the delight of many TUF fans).

PREDICTION: Joey Beltran by TKO in Round 2
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PRELIMINARY BOUTS

Lightweight Bout

PAT AUDINWOOD vs THIAGO TAVARES

Madness Level (1-10): 6

I'm really pulling for Tavares in this fight. He came into the UFC with so much promise that he has yet to fulfill (though injuries having certainly been a factor). Besides, he's up against some douche that goes by the handle "Awesomely Awesome"... seriously.

PREDICTION: Thiago Tavares by Submission in Round 1
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Lightweight Bout

STEVE LOPEZ vs WAYLON LOWE

Madness Level (1-10): 5

I generally don't back fighters who lose in the first round on a knee to the body. Put some dough on an Indiana boy on an Indiana night.

PREDICTION: Steve Lopez by TKO in Round 2
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Welterweight Bout

TJ GRANT vs JULIO PAULINO

Madness Level (1-10): 6

Their records suggest this should be a fairly even bout - not so. Grant has lost to serious contenders like Dong Hyun Kim and Johny Hendricks while Paulino was hunting wolverines in Alaska.

PREDICTION: T.J. Grant by Submission in Round 2
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Heavyweight Bout

MARK HUNT vs SEAN McCORKLE

Madness Level (1-10): 8

A 36 year old, loser of 5 straight matches, makes his UFC debut against an undefeated 6' 7", 300 pounder fighting in his home state. Sounds like an absurd mismatch... but that's no ordinary 36 year old. That's Mark Hunt, son! Baaaaammmmm!!

PREDICTION: Mark Hunt by TKO in Round 1

BELLATOR 30 RESULTS: Zack Makovsky and Ed West Advance to Bantamweight Finale, Baker Outpoints Horn - 9/23/10

BELLATOR FIGHTING CHAMPIONSHIPS XXX was held Thursday September 23, 2010 at Fourth Street Live! in Louisville, Kentucky. The top 3 fights aired live on FOX Sports Net.

In the featured fight, Bryan "The Beast" Baker won a unanimous decision over MMA legend Jeremy "Gumby" Horn in a middleweight bout. It was revealed last week that Baker is currently battling Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (CML). Baker is undergoing treatment and has been cleared by doctors to compete. Given this struggle Baker is undergoing in his personal life, this is a special win for Baker over one of the sport's best ambassadors Jeremy Horn.

Zack "Fun Size" Makovsky and Ed "Wild" West advanced to the finals of the Bellator Bantamweight Tournament with decision wins over Bryan Goldsby and Jose Vega, respectively. Makovsky and West will fight for the vacant Bellator Bantamweight Championship in the tournament final coming up in a few weeks.

Because all 3 top main card fights went the distance, Brent Weedman's welterweight tournament qualifying TKO over Jacob "Tick Tock" McClintock was not shown live and instead viewers were encouraged to watch soon for the fight on Bellator.com, which thankfully has now started posting undercard fights.

Hometown fighter John Troyer ended the evening with a unanimous decision win over Joshua Clark in the local main event.

After waiting forever while multiple fights fell through in Strikeforce, Ron "The Monster" Sparks was finally able to get back inside the cage after a layoff of over a year. Sparks got a light workout in with a 50-second KO over Greg Maynard. Come on Strikeforce, get Sparks in there with Shane Del Rosario!

BELLATOR FIGHTING CHAMPIONSHIPS 30

Bryan Baker (14-2) won by UD over Jeremy Horn (86-20)
[15:00] - 3 Rounds - (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

[Bantamweight Tournament Semifinal]
Zack Makovsky (11-2) won by UD over Bryan Goldsby (12-13)
[15:00] - 3 Rounds - (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

[Bantamweight Tournament Semifinal]
Ed West (15-4) won by SD over Jose Vega (9-4)
[15:00] - 3 Rounds - (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

[Welterweight Tournament Qualifier]
Brent Weedman (17-5) won by TKO over Jacob McClintock (6-2)
[3:05] - Round 1 - punches

John Troyer (11-6) won by UD over Josh Clark (3-1)
[15:00] - 3 Rounds - (30-27 all)

Ron Sparks (6-0) won by KO over Greg Maynard (2-1)
[0:50] - Round 1 - punch

BJ Ferguson (2-1) won by SUB over TJ Barber (0-1)
Round 2 - armbar

Mike O'Donnell (3-2) won by SUB over Stoney Hale (3-2)
[5:50] - 0:50 Round 2 - armbar

Jeremiah Riggs (3-5) won by UD over Mike Fleniken (2-3)
[15:00] - 3 Rounds - (29-28 all)

Complete MMA win-loss records with total fight time in brackets.

UD = Unanimous | SD = Split Decision | SUB = Submission

Thursday, September 23, 2010

UFC 119 INSANE PREVIEW: Predictions, Betting Odds, Weigh-In Results, Statistal Analysis, Madness Levels for Every Fight


by Randy Rowles

UFC 119: MIR VS CRO COP will be held Saturday September 25, 2010 at the Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The main card will air live on PPV at 10:00 pm EST. At least 2 preliminary bouts will air live on Spike TV in the hour preceding the PPV.

This Insane Preview includes betting odds, win-loss records with last 5 fights, Madness Levels and Madman Predictions for every fight on the card. Betting lines are translated into chance-of-winning percentages.

Betting lines are for entertainment purposes only and are included here to illustrate bookmaker projections.

Madness Levels indicate the amount of insanity inspired in anticipation of a fight on a scale of 1 to 10, a numerical translation of just how excited I am for each fight.

Striving to be the most analytically astute fight preview column possible. Let the madness begin...

UD = Unanimous | SD = Split | MD = Majority Decision | SUB = Submission | (T)KO = (Technical)Knockout
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UFC 119: MIR VS CRO COP

MAIN CARD

Heavyweight Bout

FRANK MIR (-255) = 69% chance of winning

MIRKO CRO COP (+215) = 31% chance of winning

FRANK MIR (13-5) (11-5 UFC)

AGE: 31   HEIGHT: 6’1”   WEIGHT: 252

FIGHTING OUT OF: Las Vegas, Nevada (AMERICAN)

BACKGROUND: Southpaw, Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, Black Belt in Kenpo Karate, former UFC Heavyweight Champion, currently ranked #7 Heavyweight in Madman Top 25 Rankings

8 wins by Submission | 2 wins by (T)KO | 2 wins by Decision | 1 win by DQ

5 losses by (T)KO

LAST 5 FIGHTS (3-2)

LOSS to Shane Carwin by KO at UFC 111 (3/10)

WIN over Cheick Kongo by SUB at UFC 107 (12/09)

LOSS to Brock Lesnar by TKO at UFC 100 (7/09)

WIN over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira by TKO at UFC 92 (12/08)

WIN over Brock Lesnar by SUB at UFC 81 (2/08)

MIRKO “CRO COP” FILIPOVIC (27-7) (4-3 UFC)

AGE: 36   HEIGHT: 6’1”   WEIGHT: 227

FIGHTING OUT OF: Zagreb, Croatia (CROATIAN)

BACKGROUND: Southpaw, 16-7 pro Kickboxing record, 40-5 amateur boxing record, PRIDE 2006 Openweight Grand Prix winner, currently ranked #15 Heavyweight in Madman Top 25 Rankings

20 wins by (T)KO | 4 wins by Submission | 3 wins by Decision

3 losses by Decision | 2 losses by Submission | 2 losses by KO

LAST 5 FIGHTS (4-1)

WIN over Pat Barry by SUB at UFC 115 (6/10)

WIN over Anthony Perosh by TKO at UFC 110 (2/10)

LOSS to Junior Dos Santos by SUB at UFC 103 (9/09)

WIN over Mostapha Al Turk by TKO at UFC 99 (6/09)

WIN over Hong Man Choi (2-3) by TKO at Dynamite!! 2008 (12/08)

MADNESS LEVEL (1-10): 10

I named this fight the #1 fight I was looking forward to in my Top 10 Fights to Watch in September column at the beginning of the month. Here’s what I wrote:
It’s not all that often that a late replacement makes for a better fight. While I was very much was looking forward to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira’s rematch with Frank Mir, I would much rather see this fresh match-up with Mirko Cro Cop. Mir is coming off a beatdown from Shane Carwin.

I love that Mirko Cro Cop is main eventing after such a rough start in the UFC, and his personality has been flourishing in recent press conferences and interviews. Frank Mir had his MMA dark days, as well, so to see these two headlining in a relevant UFC heavyweight fight in 2010 is really something to behold.
I think ultimately Frank Mir is the superior fighter. Mir definitely holds an advantage over Mirko Cro Cop on the ground, and I think Mir's size and strength will make up for Cro Cop's kickboxing prowess. I'm going with my brain over my heart in this one and picking Mir, but I'll be rooting for a highlight reel KO for Cro Cop, one of my top 5 favorite fighters of all time.

PREDICTION: Frank Mir by Submission in Round 2
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Light Heavyweight Bout

RYAN BADER (-170) = 61% chance of winning

ANTONIO ROGERIO NOGUEIRA (+150) = 39% chance

RYAN “DARTH” BADER (11-0) (4-0 UFC)

AGE: 27   HEIGHT: 6’2”   WEIGHT: 205

FIGHTING OUT OF: Tempe, Arizona by way of Reno, Nevada (AMERICAN)

BACKGROUND: 3-time PAC 10 champion, 2-time NCAA Division I All-American wrestler at Arizona State, TUF 8 winner, currently ranked #15 Light Heavyweight in Madman Top 25 Rankings

5 wins by (T)KO | 3 wins by Decision | 3 wins by Submission

UNDEFEATED

LAST 5 FIGHTS (5-0)

WIN over Keith Jardine by KO at UFC 110 (2/10)

WIN over Eric Schafer by UD at UFC 104 (10/09)

WIN over Carmelo Marrero by UD at UFC Fight Night 18 (4/09)

WIN over Vinny Magalhaes by KO at TUF 8 Finale (12/08)

WIN over Buckley Acosta (4-9) by SUB at XCC 6 (4/08)

ANTONIO ROGERIO “LIL NOG” NOGUEIRA (19-3) (2-0 UFC)

AGE: 34   HEIGHT: 6’2”   WEIGHT: 205

FIGHTING OUT OF: Gardena, California by way of Vitoria da Conquista, Brazil (BRAZILIAN)

BACKGROUND: Black Belt in BJJ, Black Belt in Judo, Gold Medal in Boxing at 2006 South American Games, Bronze Medal in Boxing at 2007 Pan American Games, currently ranked #7 Light Heavyweight in Madman Top 25 Rankings.

8 wins by Decision | 6 wins by Submission | 5 wins by (T)KO

2 losses by Decision | 1 loss by KO

LAST 5 FIGHTS (5-0)

WIN over Jason Brilz by SD at UFC 114 (5/10)

WIN over Luiz Cane by TKO at UFC 106 (11/09)

WIN over Dion Staring (22-7) by SUB in Jungle Fights (5/09)

WIN over Vladimir Matyushenko by TKO in Affliction (1/09)

WIN over Moise Rimbon (15-9) by UD at Sengoku 6 (11/08)

MADNESS LEVEL (1-10): 9

This is the first of three fights where the favorite is ranked lower than the underdog in consensus rankings. Ryan Bader should pronounce himself one of the Top 10 light heavyweights in the world with a victory over the legendary Antonio Rogerio Nogueira here. Rogerio is the twin brother of UFC heavyweight Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, who was originally scheduled for the main event before he had to withdraw due to injury. Rodrigo coached Ryan Bader to victory on TUF 8, and now Bader fights his twin brother.

PREDICTION: Ryan Bader by TKO in Round 2
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Tuesday, September 21, 2010

VIDEO: Countdown to UFC 119 - Full Spike Preview Video for Cro Cop vs Frank Mir, Ryan Bader vs Lil Nog and Dunham vs Sherk



PART 2



UFC 119: MIR VS CRO COP will be held this Saturday September 25, 2010 at the Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The headlining fight features legends Frank Mir and Mirko Cro Cop in a heavyweight bout. The light heavyweight co-main event features TUF 8 winner Ryan Bader taking on the twin brother of his TUF coach, Antonio Rogerio "Lil Nog" Nogueira. Evan Dunham and Sean Sherk will compete in a lightweight contest.

COMPLETE UFC 119 FIGHT CARD