This Insane Preview features all the pertinent stats – betting lines translated into projected chance of winning percentages and monetary ratios, MMA and UFC win-loss records, official weigh-in results – as well as Sherdog Fight Finder links, Madness Levels, Roundtable discussion and Predictions for every single fight on the card!
Roundtable participants are Randy Rowles (MMAmadman), Mat Paré (@The_Pinch), "Evil" Eric Van Den Haas, Josh King (@Anon991), Johnny Nguyen and we welcome for the first time -- Michael Almeida.
Betting lines are for entertainment purposes only and are included here to illustrate bookmaker projections. A winning bet results in a return of your bet plus the amount won.
Madness Levels indicate the amount of insanity inspired in anticipation of a fight on a scale of 1 to 10, a numerical translation of just how excited we are for each fight.
Striving to be the most analytically astute fight preview column possible. Let the madness begin...
UFC 122: MARQUARDT VS OKAMI
Middleweight No. 1 Contender Bout
NATE “THE GREAT” MARQUARDT
(-210) = projected 66% chance of winning = $2.10 bet wins $1
YUSHIN “THUNDER” OKAMI
(+190) = projected 34% chance of winning = $1 bet wins $1.90
NATE MARQUARDT: 30-9 (9-3 UFC) – Weight: 186
YUSHIN OKAMI: 25-5 (9-2 UFC) – Weight: 185
Average Madness Level (1-10): 7.2
MMAMADMAN – (8) This fight will determine the new 185-pound number one contender, assuming there isn’t some sort of controversial finish when Anderson Silva defends the UFC Middleweight Championship against Vitor Belfort at UFC 126, and assuming Chael Sonnen doesn’t beat his steroid rap at his appeal hearing in December. Nate Marquardt has already fought for the middleweight strap once, losing to Anderson Silva at UFC 73, and Yushin Okami is the only fighter currently on the UFC roster who holds a win over Silva, albeit a disqualification win, but a win nonetheless, so Okami definitely presents the fresher match-up should Silva retain against Belfort. It’s possible we could see Okami utilize a gameplan similar to how Chael Sonnen beat Marquardt. Okami has been training with Sonnen for this fight. I’m banking on Marquardt having learned his lesson against Sonnen, and coming into this fight more prepared to fend of Okami’s wrestling. Marquardt by Unanimous Decision
MAT PARÉ – (7) I have said it before, I'll say it again, only wrestlers have a shot at beating Anderson Silva. Strikers get KO'd, Jiu Jitsu guys lie on their backs and wait, wrestlers take Silva down and keep him there for 23 minutes... That being said, being the top notch wrestler Okami is, he has to win this fight and be No. 1 contender. Don't forget he is the last man to beat Silva, granted it was a stupid DQ, but still a win. I am crossing my fingers Yushin does what Sonnen did to Marquardt, or else Anderson's gonna get another walk in the park after he's done smashing Belfort. It is in the best interest for everyone that Okami takes this fight. He hasn't been knocked out in 7 years and we've seen Marquardt on his back for 3 rounds before. Okami by Decision (+208)
EVIL ERIC – (7) A real tough fight to call and Okami is quite capable of pulling the upset, but Nate the Great will do enough while standing to earn the hard fought decision and a shot at the Middleweight Championship. Marquardt by Split Decision
JOSH KING – (7) Marquardt is the more well-rounded fighter. Okami has the advantage in only wrestling. I don't think that will be enough. Marquardt with a TKO blitz in the 2nd
JOHNNY NGUYEN – (7) Gonna be awesome to see how each guy is going to react to the other guy’s style. I like both guys, but I’m gonna go with Okami by Decision
MICHAEL ALMEIDA – (7) Although Yushin is the only respectable Asian in the UFC, he won't be able to handle the Greg Jackson inspiration. I hate Nate "not so great" however he will squeak out a win. Could potentially be a draw. Marquardt by Unanimous Decision