Saturday, January 1, 2011

UFC 125 INSANE PREVIEW: Predictions, Roundtable Analysis, Betting Odds, Weigh-In Results, Stats, Madness Levels

UFC 125: RESOLUTION will be held Saturday January 1, 2011 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card will air live on PPV starting at 10:00 PM EST.

This Insane Preview features all the pertinent stats - betting lines translated into projected chance of winning percentages and monetary ratios; MMA, UFC and WEC win-loss records; last 5 fights for each fighter; official weigh-in results - as well as Sherdog Fight Finder links, Madness Levels, Roundtable discussion and Predictions for every single fight on the card!

Roundtable participants are Randy Rowles (MMAmadman), “Evil” Eric Van Den Haas, “Mad” Mat Paré (@The_Pinch), Johnny Nguyen, Joshua King (@Anon991), “Mad Money” Mike Almeida and Aaron Menard (@unassail08).

Madness Levels indicate the amount of insanity inspired in anticipation of a fight on a scale of 1 to 10, a numerical translation of just how excited we are for each fight.

Eric Van Den Haas is our defending Madman Roundtable Champion.

Striving to be the most analytically astute fight preview column possible. Let the madness begin...

UD = Unanimous | SD = Split | MD = Majority Decision | SUB = Submission | (T)KO = (Technical)Knockout




(-145) = $1.45 bet wins $1

(+125) = $1 bet wins $1.25

GRAY MAYNARD: 10-0 (8-0-1 UFC) – Weight: 155


WIN over Kenny Florian by UD at UFC 118 (8/10)

WIN over Nate Diaz by SD at UFC Fight Night 20 (1/10)

WIN over Roger Huerta by SD at UFC Fight Night 19 (9/09)

WIN over Jim Miller by UD at UFC 96 (3/09)

WIN over Rich Clementi by UD at UFC 90 (10/08)

FRANKIE EDGAR: 13-1 (8-1 UFC) – Weight: 155


WIN over BJ Penn by UD at UFC 118 (8/10)

WIN over BJ Penn by UD at UFC 112 (4/10)

WIN over Matt Veach by SUB at UFC TUF 10 Finale (12/09)

WIN over Sean Sherk by UD at UFC 98 (5/09)

WIN over Hermes Franca by UD at UFC Fight Night 14 (7/08)

Average Madness Level (1-10): 8.3

MMAmadman - (9) I'm curious to see how many PPV buys this event draws. Originally, Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard were supported with a co-main event of Shane Carwin vs Roy Nelson. That fight fell apart after Carwin had to withdraw to have surgery. A replacement co-main event was added after it was announced that the WEC would merge with the UFC. Jose Aldo vs Josh Grispi for the new UFC Featherweight Championship was set to compliment Edgar-Maynard, but then Aldo had to reluctantly withdraw due to injury. Now Grispi is fighting on the undercard and Chris Leben vs Brian Stann is the co-main event. In advertising, the UFC has been pushing the entire 5-fight main card, which is scattered with some recognizable faces but no real money players. Without a significant supporting cast, the burden is on Edgar and Maynard to sell this PPV. That's a tall task for two fighters with limited name recognition.

Frankie Edgar is starting to gain some traction now that he's the champion coming off two wins over one of the greatest fighters of all time, BJ Penn. The New York Jets recently had Edgar give their football team a pre-game pep talk. Gray Maynard, on the other hand, has about zero charisma and has given nothing but bland interviews leading up to this fight. After a recent interview on ESPN's MMA Live, host Jon Anik observed that he was himself seemingly more excited for this title fight than Maynard. Knowing what type of competitor Maynard is, I have no doubt that he's focused rather than disinterested, but casual fans wouldn't know it from his public demeanor. My guess is the Madness Level for the general public for this fight is probably somewhere around 5. But what I know is Maynard is the best lightweight in the UFC not currently wearing gold, and I know that Edgar has proven his worth beyond a reasonable doubt with his two wins over Penn, so my Madness Level is just shy of a 10. I'm not going all the way to 10, because there's a good chance this fight could end up resulting in Maynard smothering Edgar with his wrestling for 5 rounds. Their first fight was good and both fighters have since improved, so I'm holding out hope this one defies expectations. As for the result, I don't think Maynard is going to play into Edgar's game by slowly getting dissected on his feet. I think Maynard will be looking to make this a trench fight, using his wrestling to keep Edgar close, scoring takedowns and ground and pound en route to a decision win. Maynard by Unanimous Decision

EVIL ERIC - (9) Always odd to see the champ as a ‘dog but it's understandable here as Edgar's sole loss was to Maynard. A real hard fight to call - the only "sure thing" would be the fight going the distance. In 25 combined fights, they each have 8 wins by decision. This may not be the sexiest headliner for some, but I find it an intriguing rematch that plays out much like their original encounter due to the wrestling and size advantage of The Bully. Maynard by Unanimous Decision

MAD MAT - (8) Hate to bet against Frankie and there's a good chance he's gonna make me hate it even more if he surprises everyone, but Maynard beat him before, and even though I think Edgar will give Grey a tough time, The Bully is gonna out-wrestle his way to a grueling 5 round decision. Can't see how either guy scores a finish, can't see how Frankie will Energizer Bunny his way out of this one. Maynard by Decision (quite possibly Split) (+130 prop bet)

JOHNNY - (8) I can't believe Frankie manhandled BJ Penn so easily. The only loss Frankie has is to Maynard back at UFC Fight Night 13. Both men have fantastic wrestling backgrounds. I hope this is not a boring wrestling match. I'm gonna go with Maynard by Decision

JOSHUA KING - (8) Gray should grind this one out with his wrestling. I don't see Frankie keeping his in-and-out boxing going for long. Maynard by Decision

MAD MONEY MIKE - (8) This should be a great revenge match, and I truly believe Edgar will avenge his loss to The Bully. Beating BJ Penn twice will give him the confidence to outmatch Gray in almost every area with the exception of the wrestling. Edgar by Unanimous Decision

AARON - (8) I will keep this short. I think Frankie Edgar at a dog price is a bargain, he knows what it is to go 5 rounds. Frankie just went 5 rounds with perhaps the best lightweight ever in BJ Penn. Gray Maynard likes to smother his opponents, however, I think Frankie has mastered the art of mixing up the martial arts so well that that it seems to flow like it’s natural. Edgar wins a 5 Round Decision (49-46)


Middleweight Bout

(-160) = $1.60 bet wins $1

(+140) = $1 bet wins $1.40

CHRIS LEBEN: 25-6 (11-5 UFC | 2-0 WEC) – Weight: 186


WIN over Yoshihiro Akiyama by SUB at UFC 116 (7/10)

WIN over Aaron Simpson by TKO at UFC TUF 11 Finale (6/10)

WIN over Jay Silva by UD at UFC Fight Night 20 (1/10)

LOSS to Jake Rosholt by SUB at UFC 102 (8/09)

LOSS to Michael Bisping by UD at UFC 89 (10/08)

BRIAN STANN: 9-3 (3-2 UFC | 5-1 WEC) – Weight: 186


WIN over Mike Massenzio by SUB at UFC on Versus 2 (8/10)

LOSS to Phil Davis by UD at UFC 109 (2/10)

WIN over Rodney Wallace by UD at UFC TUF 10 Finale (12/09)

WIN over Steve Cantwell by UD at UFC Fight Night 19 (9/09)

LOSS to Krzysztof Soszynski by SUB at UFC 97 (4/09)

Average Madness Level (1-10): 6.6

MMAmadman - (7) This should be a really fun fight. As Brian Stann pointed out at the pre-fight press conference, he and Chris Leben have two of the biggest heads in the UFC middleweight division, so there isn't going to be a whole lot of head movement going on in this one. What we are going to get, is two warriors standing and trading bombs until one man falls. I predict the man who will eventually fall will be Stann. Leben by TKO in Round 3

EVIL ERIC - (7) Both coming off Fight of the Night victories, this battle has fireworks potential as a stand-up war seems likely. In a fight that could go either way, I'll take the vet coming off an impressive string of victories in 2010. The Crippler, fresh off a DUI, will be looking for a TKO with the powerful left but a decision seems more likely. Leben by Unanimous Decision

MAD MAT - (6) The Crippler is on a roll and quite frankly, Stann is not the opponent anyone had in mind for him. Give him Wanderlei Silva or Chael Sonnen or Nate Marquardt or anyone highly ranked at 185, because Leben deserves it. I thought he was a crying bitch on TUF 1, but he has grown into a beast and a super-entertaining fighter. Didn't think Leben could beat Sexyma and he did, didn't think he would beat Aaron Simpson and he did, didn't even think he'd beat Jay Silva... Leben by TKO (+290 prop bet) Round 2 (+650 prop)

JOHNNY NGUYEN - (6) Always exciting to watch Leben fight. Just when you think he's losing, he'll come back and KO his opponent. I’m gonna with Leben by 1st round KO

JOSHUA KING - (6) Leben is on quite a streak and won't be beat now. Also Stann's head movement could use some work. Leben, TKO 1st

MAD MONEY MIKE - (7) Let me be honest. I started out a Leben fan shortly after he appeared on The Ultimate Fighter, however, I have slowly lost interest as he has his ups and downs in the Octagon. Hey does that mean I'm not loyal when these warriors experience ups and downs within their careers? I guess it does. Stann went the distance with “Mr. Wonderful” Phil Davis. That’s pretty good (notice my "All American" lingo? My apologies to you American boys.) Stann by Decision

AARON - (7) Trainer for Brian Stann, Jon Chaimberg, has said that he has Brian Stan at a level we have not seen yet. This will be a bona fide scrap fest and Chris Leben’s exciting style that led to two victories in a span of less than two weeks apart will be his downfall. Brian Stann likes to scrap and throw hands. This fight may also be Fight of the Night. I think Brain Stann wins this fight hands down. Stann (T)KO round 2


Friday, December 31, 2010

DYNAMITE!! 2010 RESULTS: Hiroyuki Takaya Wins DREAM Featherweight Title, Overeem Obliterates Duffee - 12/31/10

DREAM/K-1 DYNAMITE!! 2010 was held Friday December 31, 2010 at the Saitama Super Arena in Saitama, Japan. The annual Japanese New Year's Eve show featured the usual pageantry with the type of pomp and circumstance only possible in Japan.

In the main event, Hiroyuki "Streetfight Bancho" Takaya outpointed Bibiano "The Flash" Fernandes to win the DREAM Featherweight Championship. Fernandes had originally bested Takaya to win the title by split decision in the finals of the 2009 DREAM Featherweight Grand Prix. This time it was a unanimous decision verdict and Takaya was on the winning end. Takaya had been heavily pushed in the promotion of this event, so this victory has solidified him as one of the top new stars in Japanese MMA.

The co-main event featured another very significant win for Japanese MMA. Tatsuya "Crusher" Kawajiri manhandled former Strikeforce lightweight champion Josh Thomson for 3 rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory. Earlier this year, DREAM Lightweight Champion Shinya Aoki traveled to America, where he was subsequently embarrassed by Strikeforce Lightweight Champion Gilbert Melendez in a 5-round shellacking. The competitiveness of Japanese lightweights in comparison to American lightweights was called into question, however, Kawajiri proved more than capable of competing with Thomson and actually outwrestled the American fighter. This was a huge victory for Kawajiri that has renewed the Strikeforce vs DREAM rivalry.

Hayato "Mach" Sakurai has now lost 4 straight fights. Jason "The Kansas City Bandit" High used wrestling to control Sakurai and was awarded a split decision victory. While it wasn't the prettiest of victories, it was a win nonetheless for High. Sakurai, who is now in his fifteenth year in the sport, should, but probably won't, consider retirement.

Marius "The Whitemare" Zaromskis quite literally knocked the ear off of Kazushi Sakuraba's head. Sakuraba, who has a serious case of the cauliflower ear, took a blow to the head that tore the top of his ear from the side of his head. With his ear dangling in the wind, Sakuraba made his way to the corner where the ringside doctor immediately stopped the fight. Afterward, Sakuraba apologized, saying "sorry my ear came off." At this point, calling for Sakuraba's retirement is pointless. I've relegated myself to the fact that Sakuraba is either going to die in the ring or physically be unable to walk to the ring before he retires.

Although Jerome "Geronimo" Le Banner hadn't competed in an MMA fight in over 5 years, he proved to be a game opponent for rising star Satoshi Ishii, who made his MMA debut a year ago at Dynamite!! 2009. Le Banner lasted the duration of the fight with Ishii, but in the end it was Ishii whose hand was raised in victory via unanimous decision.

Alistair "The Reem" Overeem, less than 3 weeks after winning the K-1 World Grand Prix 2010, the Super Bowl of kickboxing, has now won the DREAM Interim Heavyweight Championship. Overeem needed just 19 seconds to put away Todd Duffee, who accepted this fight on short notice. Kudos to Duffee for stepping up to the plate, but he got quickly struck the f-ck out. Overeem appears unstoppable.

Sergei Kharitonov made quick work of an undersized Tatsuya Mizuno. As soon as I saw the two fighters square off in the middle of the ring, I thought Mizuno was about to get hurt, and boy did he ever. Kharitonov landed a vicious knee that dropped Mizuno like a sack of potatoes. Goodnight, Irene!

Hiroshi Izumi used his size and grappling advantage to dominate an uninspired Ikuhisa "Minowaman" Minowa. In a fight that seemed to play out in slow motion, the plodding Izumi rode Minowaman for two plus rounds before eventually winning by TKO via pitter-patter punches in the third round. This fight was bowling shoe ugly.

Hideo Tokoro may very well have set a new record for the most armbar attempts in a fight against Kazuhisa Watanabe, a professional boxer making his MMA debut. Tokoro tried submission after submission on Watanabe, but to no avail. Watanabe made this a fun fight with his bully antics, facial expressions and body gestures while throwing wild punches and tepid kicks that kept getting him taken down. Unfortunately for Watanabe, his submission defense was the best, and only, part of his game, which lead to one long two and a half round submission attempt by Tokoro.

Caol Uno made his long-awaited featherweight debut, however, against the Olympic wrestling of Kazuyuki "Little Hercules" Miyata, a successful debut it was not. Uno is now 0-4-1 in his last 5 fights and may very well have fought for the last time. Miyata, on the other hand, has now won 6 straight fights and has put himself in line for a possible DREAM featherweight title shot.

In the opening fight of the nearly 7-hour event, Andy Ologun squeaked by Katsuaki Furuki, a recently retired pro baseball player making his MMA debut. Unlike other professional athletes who've tried their hand at MMA, Furuki showed he had taken his training very seriously and just might have a career in MMA now that his baseball days are behind him. Ologun isn't exactly a world-beater, but he's incredibly athletic and Furuki held his own for a good portion of the fight, including mounting Ologun on several occasions.

In non-MMA bouts, "Wicky" Akiyo Nishiura and Tetsuya Yamato fought to a draw under K-1 MAX rules, and DREAM Light Heavyweight Champion Gegard "The Dreamcatcher" Mousasi won a unanimous decision over K-1 star Kyotaro under K-1 rules. This was a significant crossover victory for an MMA fighter over an established kickboxing powerhouse.

DREAM Lightweight Champion Shinya Aoki fought cross-dressing kickboxing star Yuichiro "Jienotsu" Nagashima in a mixed rules fight, with the first round under K-1 kickboxing rules and the second round under DREAM MMA rules. As was expected, Aoki stalled for most of the first round, using illegal clinches and repeated dropkick attempts to buy himself time. While Aoki was warned several times by the referee, he was blatantly cheating and really should've been disqualified before the first round ended. In an ironic twist of fate, justice was served 4 seconds into the second round, when Nagashima knocked Aoki unconscious. With the fight under MMA rules, Aoki sloppily went for a takedown and ate a knee. Nagashima followed up with some hammerstrikes and Aoki was out cold for quite some time.

Bob Sapp was supposed to fight disgraced sumo wrestler "Wakakirin" Shinichi Suzukawa in an IGF special rules fight, Pancrase-style with no gloves and only open-hand strikes, however, it was announced that Sapp would not be competing because he had "lost the will to fight." The announcers elaborated that Sapp had attempted to renegotiate his contract backstage before the fight, which is not the first time he's tried to pull such a stunt. Hopefully, a lesson has been learned here and promoters will stop offering Sapp fights. It's been many a moon since Sapp has done anything but cash a check for a fight. This time he didn't even get to do that.


{Featherweight Championship}
Hiroyuki Takaya (15-8) won by UD over Bibiano Fernandes (8-3)
[20:00] - 3 Rounds

Tatsuya Kawajiri (27-6) won by UD over Josh Thomson (18-4)
[15:00] - 3 Rounds

Jason High (12-3) won by SD over Hayato Sakurai (35-12)
[15:00] - 3 Rounds

{Welterweight Championship}
Marius Zaromskis (14-5) won by TKO over Kazushi Sakuraba (26-15)
[2:16] - Round 1 - doctor stoppage

Satoshi Ishii (4-1) won by UD over Jerome Le Banner (3-2)
[15:00] - 3 Rounds

{Interim Heavyweight Championship}
Alistair Overeem (34-11) won by KO over Todd Duffee (6-2)
[0:19] - Round 1 - punches

Sergei Kharitonov (17-4) won by KO over Tatsuya Mizuno (8-7)
[1:25] - Round 1 - knee

Hiroshi Izumi (4-1) won by TKO over Ikuhisa Minowa (47-32)
[12:50] - 2:50 Round 3 - punches

Hideo Tokoro (27-23) won by SUB over Kazuhisa Watanabe (0-1)
[12:50] - 2:50 Round 3 - armbar

Kazuyuki Miyata (11-7) won by UD over Caol Uno (25-14)
[15:00] - 3 Rounds

Andy Ologun (3-1) won by UD over Katsuaki Furuki (0-1)
[15:00] - 3 Rounds

Updated MMA win-loss records with total fight time in brackets.

UD = Unanimous | SD = Split Decision | SUB = Submission


FIGHT OF THE NIGHT: Hiroyuki Takaya vs. Bibiano Fernandes

KO OF THE NIGHT: Sergei Kharitonov (knee) over Tatsuya Mizuno

SUB OF THE NIGHT: Hideo Tokoro (armbar) over Kazuhisa Watanabe

QUICKEST WIN: Alistair Overeem over Todd Duffee in 19 seconds

BIGGEST UPSET: Hiroyuki Takaya (+160) over Bibiano Fernandes

BIGGEST WINNER:) Hiroyuki Takaya


Dynamite!! 2010 Insane Preview Prediction Results:

1 - RANDY ROWLES: 9-3 (14.5 pts)

2 - AARON MENARD: 9-3 (13.5 pts)

3 - MAT PARÉ: 7-5

VIDEO: Strikeforce Best of 2010 - Complete List of Fan-Voted Award Nominees and Video Highlights of the Winners

Strikeforce has announced the winners of their 2010 Awards as voted by the fans. This video montage chronicles the year's best for Strikeforce.


  • Daniel Cormier
  • Tarec Saffiedine
  • Ovince St. Preux
  • Miesha Tate
  • Tyron Woodley

  • Paul Daley over Scott Smith
  • Sarah Kaufman over Roxanne Modafferi
  • Robbie Lawler over Melvin Manhoef
  • Robbie Lawler over Scott Smith

  • Marloes Coenen over Sarah Kaufman
  • Roger Gracie over Kevin Randleman
  • Fabricio Werdum over Fedor Emelianenko

  • Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante over Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal
  • Chad Griggs over Bobby Lashley
  • Fabricio Werdum over Fedor Emelianenko

  • Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante
  • Nick Diaz
  • Gilbert Melendez
  • Alistair Overeem
  • Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza
  • Fabricio Werdum

  • Marloes Coenen
  • Sarah Kaufman
  • Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos
  • Miesha Tate

  • Nick Diaz vs. KJ Noons 2
  • Billy Evangelista vs. Waachiim Spiritwolf
  • Antonio Silva vs. Mike Kyle

Thursday, December 30, 2010

DYNAMITE!! 2010 INSANE PREVIEW: Predictions, Roundtable Analysis, Betting Odds for New Year's Eve - 12/31/10

DREAM/K-1 DYNAMITE!! 2010 will be held Friday December 31, 2010 at Saitama Super Arena in Saitama, Japan. The event will air live on HDNet in North America starting at 4:00 AM EST on New Year's Eve.

This relatively Insane Preview features betting lines translated into projected chance of winning percentages and monetary ratios, Official Weigh-In Results, Madness Levels, Roundtable discussion and Predictions for every single MMA fight on the card!

Roundtable participants are MMAmadman Randy Rowles, “Mad” Mat Paré (@The_Pinch), and introducing Aaron Menard (@unassail08), making his Madman Roundtable debut. You can find Aaron's MMA gambling analysis in the Sports Betting Forum at, username Unassail08.

Madness Levels indicate the amount of insanity inspired in anticipation of a fight on a scale of 1 to 10, a numerical translation of excitement for each fight.



(-195) = projected 63% chance of winning = $1.95 bet wins $1

(+160) = projected 37% chance of winning = $1 bet wins $1.60

BIBIANO FERNANDES: 8-2 – Weight: 138.2

HIROYUKI TAKAYA: 14-8 – Weight: 138.7

Average Madness Level (1-10): 6.67

MMAMADMAN – (8) Bibiano Fernandes won the DREAM Featherweight Championship with a split decision over Hiroyuki Takaya in the finals of the 2009 DREAM Featherweight Grand Prix. Fernandes had a much tougher road to the finals, scoring wins over Takafumi Otsuka, Masakazu Imanari and Joe Warren en route to outpointing Takaya in the finale. Takaya, on the other hand, made it to the finals with wins over Jong Won Kim, Yoshiro Maeda and Hideo Tokoro, three good fighters, but none at the level of Joe Warren, the current Bellator Featherweight Champion. Fernandes has successfully defended his title once, beating Joachim “Hellboy” Hansen at DREAM 13, with yet another split decision. Hellboy is a former lightweight who’s beaten Shinya Aoki, so this was a significant victory for The Flash. Now Fernandes is rematching Takaya, who is coming of 2 impressive knockout wins, one over former WEC bantamweight champion Chase Beebe and one over the aforementioned Joachim Hansen. Takaya has all the momentum in the world behind him and has been heavily pushed by DREAM in the promotion of this event. This is a classic case of an irresistible force meeting an immovable object. Fernandes had been holding out defending his DREAM title due to delays in his being paid for his previous fights. DREAM officials would be ecstatic to see the belt around the waist of a Japanese fighter, so they are no doubt praying for Takaya to knock out Fernandes. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see an early stoppage if Takaya has Fernandes in any sort of trouble, or possibly a controversial decision. I’m not saying the fight game can sometimes be corrupt in Japan, but I’m also not saying it can’t. Takaya by Split Decision

MAD MAT – (6) Bib FTW! Another classic striker vs grappler matchup with the edge clearly going to Bibiano, especially having defeated Takaya already. It should be a close one again but don't expect Fernandes to lose his title, that man is on a roll. Here's to hoping he wins decisively this time, I don't expect a finish but a unanimous decision will do. Fernandes by Decision

AARON – (6) In this fight, I think Bibiano Fernandes’ lack of striking will come back to bite him in the butt. Takaya has 11 wins via T(KO) and was the first person to KO Joachim Hansen in Hansen’s 11 year fight career. I don’t see very many outlets for Bibiano to get this fight to the ground, if he does it’s game on for him, if Bibiano cannot, then he will hand Takaya this fight on a silver platter. Takaya will KO Fernandes in the 1st Round

Lightweight Bout

(-120) = projected 51% chance of winning = $1.20 bet wins $1

(-110) = projected 49% chance of winning = $1.10 bet wins $1

JOSH THOMSON: 18-3 – Weight: 154.3

TATSUYA KAWAJIRI: 26-6 – Weight: 154.3

Average Madness Level (1-10): 6.33

MMAMADMAN – (8) Earlier this year, DREAM Lightweight Champion Shinya Aoki travelled to the United States and got spanked by Strikeforce Lightweight Champion Gilbert Melendez. Now, former Strikeforce lightweight champion Josh Thomson travels to Japan to fight Tatsuya Kawajiri, who Aoki scored a rebound victory over after being embarrassed by Melendez. A little over a year ago, Thomson was also schooled by Melendez, losing his title back to the man who he'd originally defeated to become champion. Oh, what a tangled web we weave. Kawajiri hasn’t fought since nearly getting his ankle snapped by Aoki. Thomson is coming off one of the biggest wins of his career, a decision victory over Gesias “JZ” Cavalcante. I expect this will be a highly competitive fight and I’ll be surprised to see a finish. Japanese judges can be unpredictable to say the least, but I think Thomson will do enough that the result will be clear. Thomson by Unanimous Decision

MAD MAT – (6) Thomson is the man, end of story. This is gonna be a close bout, Kawajiri has been in there with the best of 'em and is a crafty veteran. After Thomson's fight with Pat Healy, which he was losing until he pulled off a submission in round 3, I have to say I am a little worried betting him. Whatever happens, I don't see Kawajiri finishing Thomson. This should be back and forth action, but Thomson will find a way to win or grind it out. Thomson by Decision

AARON – (5) I am excited for this fight, however, I don’t have much for this fight except that I think Josh Thomson will use his wrestling advantage and keep Kawajiri on his back for the majority of the fight, when Kawajiri lost to Aoki. It proved how futile his wrestling is if he has to fight off of his back. Kawajiri doesn’t have a notable submission win off of his back since 2002. Thomson wins this fight via Unanimous Decision

Welterweight Bout

(-130) = projected 53% chance of winning = $1.30 bet wins $1

(EVEN) = projected 47% chance of winning = $1 bet wins $1

HAYATO SAKURAI: 35-11 – Weight: 167.6

JASON HIGH: 11-3 – Weight: 166.7

Average Madness Level (1-10): 4.67

MMAMADMAN – (7) Another really competitive contest. Jason High is one of my favorite fighters, so I’m probably a bit biased, but Mach Sakurai has lost 3 straight fights and I’m not quite sure he’s got that same fire in him anymore. I think High controls the fight and outpoints Sakurai in a fairly lackluster fight, leaving Sakurai, who’s now in his 15th year in the sport, pondering retirement. High by Unanimous Decision

MAD MAT – (4) Very tough one to call, I don't even wanna make a pick! High is coming off 2 wins over no-names and Sakurai is coming off 3 losses to big names. Overall, I think Sakurai's experience should be the deciding factor. He is in desperate need of a win to stay relevant and I think his game is too complete for Jason, who has never beaten anyone of such caliber. I think Sakurai either knocks High out or controls him to win a decision. Sakurai by TKO Round 2

AARON – (3) The oddsmakers in this fight have it a pick ‘em. I think the exact opposite, I don’t see any way in which Jason High loses this fight. Jason High had a 1-fight stint in the UFC, losing to Charlie Brenneman via unanimous decision. Since then, Jason has rebounded with two wins in Canada. Hayato “Mach” Sakurai is coming off 3 straight losses - to Nick Diaz, Akihiro Gono, and Marius Zaromskis, all finishes. Ironically enough, both share the same distinction, which is a head kick knockout loss to Marius Zaromskis. I see Jason High utilizing his superior wrestling, getting this fight to the ground early and often. Jason also has enough striking ability to last long enough to get it to the ground. The last time Sakurai won via submission was July 19, 2004 at PRIDE Bushido 4. Decent fight with enough excitement to care about who wins, no more. High wins a Unanimous Decision


(-250) = projected % chance of winning = $2.50 bet wins $1

(+190) = projected % chance of winning = $1 bet wins $1.90

MARIUS ZAROMSKIS: 13-5 – Weight: 166.9

KAZUSHI SAKURABA: 26-14 – Weight: 167.6

Average Madness Level (1-10): 7

MMAMADMAN – (8) Kazushi Sakuraba is my all-time favorite fighter, one of the primary inspirations for the Madness. I’ve been a fan of the UFC since the very beginning, but it was Sakuraba in PRIDE that made me certifiably insane for MMA. This, of course, doesn’t mean I don’t think Sakuraba shouldn’t have retired from MMA many years ago, but who am I to tell a legend to walk away from the sport he loves, even if literally ends up killing him? Sakuraba has suffered brain injuries and has at times had to hobble to the ring to compete, his legs mummified in gauze. Yet here we are, about to enter 2011, and Sakuraba is fighting Marius frickin’ Zaromskis, and frankly, dropping to 170, Sakuraba hasn’t looked this ripped in years. Zaromskis is 0-2-1 in his last 3 fights and hasn’t won in well over a year. Zaromskis’ last win was in October 2009, his third straight win by headkick knockout. Since then, Zaromskis has been pounded out by Nick Diaz and Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos in Strikeforce. Zaromskis’ last fight only lasted 6 seconds, when he accidentally poked Waachiim Spiritwolf in the eye which resulted in a No Contest. The Spiritwolf fight was supposed to be a gimme fight to get Zaromskis back in the winning column. Now it looks like Sakuraba will instead be Zaromskis’ path to victory. Only in Japan does a fighter get a title shot coming of back-to-back losses, but Sakuraba in getting that chance despite losing to Jason “Mayhem” Miller and Ralek Grace in his last two fights. Both of those losses were at middleweight, though, and Sakuraba is a fighter who transcends the sport, so you’re not going to hear me complaining. My hope is to not be grimacing after a violent finish. I would love nothing more than to be wrong here, but Zaromskis by KO in Round 1

MAD MAT – (6) No, not Zaromskis again! I never know what to pick when it comes to him... Lost twice on him in 2010 and was finally confident picking him in his last outing, which ended in a 10 second no contest for a thumb to the eye... sigh... I have said before Sakuraba was done and should retire, but when it comes to a one-dimensional fighter like Marius, you have to give Kaz a shot. If only Zaromskis had one submission loss on his record, I would bet Sakuraba, but alas, Marius knocks people out or gets knocked out himself, end of story. And since Sakuraba is on a slump as of late and has been knocked out so many times, I will cross my fingers and bet Zaromskis, hoping I don’t go 0-3-1 betting him in 2010! Zaromskis by KO in round 1

AARON – (7) Anyone ever see the movie THE WRESTLER? The washed-up has-been who doesn’t go back to the real world life after a life spent in something that made him famous, but doesn’t know when to get out of the sport? This is Kazushi “Gracie-Killer” Sakuraba. Sakuraba has a decorated fight career with 42 fights to his name, he represented Japanese MMA and wrestling for the longest time and held his own as the last remnants of a professional wrestler in a legitimate shootfight atmosphere. I personally will never forget his entrance at PRIDE Final Conflict 2003 when he dressed up as Super Mario, had a Mario techno theme he came out to, and called his opponent Kevin Randleman “Donkey Kong.” This is also Sakuraba’s first fight ever at the welterweight division level. I will be rooting for Sakuraba, but I think he loses this fight and retires. Marius Zaromskis is the defending DREAM Welterweight Champion, although he is on a bit of a skid himself, losing 2 out of his last 3, with his last fight last month ending due to an accidental eye-poke 6 seconds in the first round. I think he has the technical striking to torch Sakuraba in this aspect. Sakuraba has 8 of his 14 losses coming by way of T(KO). My heart is rooting for Sakuraba as I want the one-trick pony to have one last hoorah before he rides off into the sunset. I don’t see it happening however. Zaromskis will defeat Sakuraba, First Round KO. I have never wanted to be more wrong in my life.

SENGOKU: SOUL OF FIGHT RESULTS - MMA Complete Spoilers from Japan - 12/30/11

SENGOKU RAIDEN CHAMPIONSHIP: SOUL OF FIGHT was held Thursday December 30, 2010 at the Ariake Coliseum in Tokyo, Japan. The event was not televised live in North America, but instead will air via tape delay on HDNet in two parts. Part 1 will air on Friday January 14, 2011, and Part 2 will air the following Friday on January 21, 2011. The event featured 28 fights in total. The results of the MMA fights are listed after the page break.


Wednesday, December 29, 2010

MAD MAT VS SENGOKU: SOUL OF FIGHT - Predictions with Analysis and Madness Levels for Every MMA Fight - 12/30/10


by “Mad” Mat Paré

SRC: SOUL OF FIGHT will be held Thursday December 30, 2010 at the Ariake Coliseum in Tokyo, Japan. The event will air on HDNet via tape delay. Part 1 will air on January 14, 2011 and Part 2 will air on January 21, 2011.

Madness Levels indicate the amount of insanity inspired in anticipation of a fight on a scale of 1 to 10, a numerical translation of excitement for each fight.


(-215) = projected 65% chance of winning = $2.15 bet wins $1

(+170) = projected 35% chance of winning = $1 bet wins $1.70

MARLON SANDRO: 17-1 – Weight: 143.9

HATSU HIOKI: 22-4 – Weight: 144.5

Madness Level (1-10): 8

A classic striker vs grappler fight with the featherweight title on the line. Should be a top-notch entertaining fight. Sandro is rightfully the favorite but it's a close one. If Sandro doesn't catch Hioki with a devastating shot, he should have trouble grinding out the decision on him. Both men's last loss was against Omigawa who is now UFC bound. For Sandro it's his only loss, for Hioki his 4th, all decisions. I'm picking Hatsu by out-grinding, he should avoid the haymakers and keep Sandro on his back working for submissions, but not sinking one on.

PREDICTION: Hatsu Hioki by Decision (Probably Split)

Middleweight Bout

(-1300) = projected 88% chance of winning = $13 bet wins $1

(+700) = projected 12% chance of winning = $1 bet wins $7

KAZUO MISAKI: 22-11 – Weight: 183.9

MIKE SEAL: 13-13 – Weight: 184.4

Madness Level (1-10): 2

Don't have much info on Seal but he's +700 vs Misaki's -1300... Speaks for itself. This looks like an easy fight to get Misaki back on his winning ways. Coming off losses to Jorge Santiago and Melvin Manhoef, 2 names that don't belong in the same sentence as the 13-13 Mike Seal.

PREDICTION: Kazuo Misaki by Submission Round 1

Womens Featherweight Bout

(-1700) = projected 91% chance of winning = $17 bet wins $1

(+950) = projected 9% chance of winning = $1 bet wins $9.50

MEGUMI FUJII: 22-1 – Weight: 116.4

EMI FUJINO: 9-4 – Weight: 117.3

Madness Level (1-10): 4

Megumi is a machine! She is by far the best female fighter in the world. I love Zoila, but she robbed the Bellator title from her and Jessica Aguilar. They both beat Frausto if you ask me. Dunno who Fujino is, don't think it really matters. She has never tapped though...would love if Fujii was the first to ever sub Emi.

PREDICTION: Megumi Fujii by Decision

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

VIDEO: The Story of Minowaman - Giant Killer Ikuhisa Minowa Documentary Short

Ikuhisa Minowa, better known simply as Minowaman, has at times been one of the most exciting fighters in all of MMA, while at other times seeming to be one of the least inspired. This is a fan-made documentary about the man whose trademark red Speedos never fail to bring announcer Michael "The Voice" Schiavello to near orgasmic levels of excitement.

Ikuhisa Minowa's two EPIC fights with Phil "The New York Bad Ass" Baroni in PRIDE, and his recent DREAM Super Hulk Grand Prix victory as the smallest man in a tournament of giants, have turned a fighter who started his MMA career 1-8-1 into a bona fide legend of the sport in Japan, where his alter ego Minowaman has been immortalized in comic books.

Ikuhisa Minowa will continue his trend of fighting bigger opponents at DREAM Dynamite!! 2010, where he'll square off with 2004 Olympic judo silver medalist Hiroshi Izumi.

WARNING: This video is NSFW, thanks to a rather inspired Phil Baroni promo.

Minowaman with student who made him a Super Hulk belt after DREAM delayed producing one.


VIDEO: DREAM Dynamite!! 2010 Preview for HDNet New Year's Eve Show in Japan

An aptly bizarre preview for an event with two exclamation points in its title, this K-1/DREAM Dynamite!! 2010 promo video is divided into 4 parts as to not overwhelm your senses too much at once. Yes, it's in Japanese. No, that doesn't matter. Language barriers cannot contain the awesomeness.

What is clear from this preview, is now that Kid Yamamoto has left Japan for greener pastures in the UFC, the hopes of a nation have been placed on Hiroyuki "Streetfight Bancho" Takaya to lead the way with a DREAM Featherweight Championship victory over Bibiano Fernandes. Be warned, once the melodramatic reenactment of the life story of Takaya starts in the second video, it doesn't stop until the fourth video. Watching the first two segments pretty much gives you the gist of it all. For all of you true hardcore Japanese MMA fans out there, though, I expect you'll still be watching as The Godfather theme plays over Antonio Inoki sipping wine at the end.